Polls are indicating that the "red shirts" will receive the most votes in the July 3 election. Whether they will form a government is another matter.
According to recent polls, it is likely the Pheu Thai Party, led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who boasts the “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Does” campaign, will emerge victorious in the upcoming general election.
However it is not guaranteed that the party with the most number of MP seats in the House will get to set up the government. Instead, the party which can garner the majority of MPs will get to form a coalition. As a result, the big parties will attempt to grab votes from smaller parties.
A public poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration showed that 23.36 percent of the respondents said that they will vote for the Pheu Thai Party while 20.20 percent will vote for the Democrats. The poll has also revealed that 52.87 percent of the respondents claimed to be undecided. This majority will prove to be the decisive factor in the next election.
However, this “silent majority” might actually remain silent, meaning that they are politically numb and may not vote in the next election at all. Bangkok voters have the lowest average turnout.
Due to the influence of the mainstream media, middle-class voters in the urban areas, mainly in Bangkok, are most likely to remain confident in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and will continue to support the Democrat Party. Yet the chance that the Democrats will win the nationwide election is minuscule. Because of this, the Democrat Party has never agreed to the pledge to give the party with the most seats the right to form a government.
The Thai political landscape may change drastically after the election. On the other hand, it may remain the same in which the runner-up party gets to be in government while the party with the most votes becomes the Opposition, who might still continue to organize protests to topple the government.
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